How a Diverse Coalition Could Flip the House

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Conservatives are on the offense as they seek to galvanize voters across the country, not only to help President Trump secure re-election and maintain control of the U.S. Senate, but also to recapture the House majority from the Democrats.

 

Thirty-one House Democrats currently represent districts won by President Trump, and all of them except for Colin Peterson of Minnesota’s 7th congressional district voted to remove the president from office in the partisan impeachment inquiry. This makes them all potentially vulnerable to backlash from the voters in their district. After Mike Garcia’s surprisingly strong victory in California’s 25th congressional district, Republicans need to only gain a net of 17 seats to regain the House majority.

 

Fueling the chances of a GOP win in the House is a surge of women aiming to represent their districts. Republicans have seen a massive surge in female candidates running this election cycle, according to a report by The Hill.

 

The data shows 195 women are running as Republicans, which sets a new record for the party in regard to women running for office in a single cycle, up from 133 during the 2010 midterm election. That is significant, because in the 2010 midterm election, famously known as the “Tea Party Wave,” saw Republicans win over the Democrats and flipped over 60 House seats. If the increase in women running has any relationship to the possibility of GOP success, the record-setting number of female candidates running could give Republicans a significant boost in their quest to reclaim the House.

 

Carlos Gimenez and Omar Blanco are running in competitive districts that voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016. Miami-Dade County mayor Carlos A. Gimenez, and Omar Blanco, a fire union chief for Miami-Dade County, both Republicans, are competing for Florida’s 26th congressional district.

 

If Gimenez wins his primary against Omar Blanco in August, which seems likely, then he will stand a good chance of flipping the district, which is rated as six points more Democratic than the rest of the country, according to the Cook Partisan Voting Index.

 

Mike Garcia also won in California’s 25th congressional district, a blue-leaning district,  winning it by nearly ten points after its previous occupant, Katie Hill, won it by nine points. Garcia’s ability to connect with Hispanic voters while embodying elements of President Trump’s record that worked for his constituents swung the district by across the country are free thinkers, and don’t necessarily believe that the Democrat party is entitled to their vote.

 

John James, an African American and decorated U.S. Army veteran, is running against Gary Peters to represent Michigan in the U.S. Senate. President Trump narrowly carried Michigan in 2016, and Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer’s oppressive coronavirus restrictions are causing a significant backlash among Michigan voters, as evidenced by repeated demonstrations. John James, who is considered another top-tier recruit for the GOP, might help lift President Trump in the state if he has a strong performance in Michigan.

 

The new conservative coalition, driven by a record number of women running, including conservative Hispanics and African Americans, will shine a light on the Democrats’ repeated obstruction and refusal to work with the President and his administration while ignoring the plight of everyday Americans. It will not be easy, but these promising candidates have a strong chance of flipping the House this November.

 

 

References

Cook, C. (2018, January). Cook Political Report. Retrieved from https://cookpolitical.com/